John Kerry, our Secretary of State was horrified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kerry said Vladimir Putin acted like he lived in the 19th or 20th century not the 21st
Invasion disappointment syndrome has its roots in 3rd century India. It reminded me of the fable ‘The Scorpion and the Frog’. Everyone thinks it was Aesop but it wasn’t. The scorpion asked the frog to take him on his back across the river. The frog hestitated, since the scorpion could sting him and he would die.. But the scorpion assured the frog that of course he would not sting him, since he knew they would both die.
The frog believed the scorpion, since it made rational sense and he was a rational frog. And afterall this was the 3rd century. But in the middle of the river the scorpion stung the frog. As they were both dying, the frog asked ‘ Why?’ The scorpion said ‘It is my nature.’
Unfortunately for our hapless leaders, the world is not full of rational leaders or scorpions. The fact that Kerry and Obama have so badly misjudged Putin would be comical if it wasn’t so serious. These guys are supposed to know what they are doing. Kerry even speaks French!
The moral of the story is that the frog should have never trusted the scorpion. It was his own fault that he died. The scorpion acted like a scorpion. That is the lesson.
It was embarassing to hear John Kerry complain that an invasion was not the answer. He said Putin could have gone to the UN or to other international organizations. It was like a parent yelling at his son that he was disappointed in him. His son had refused to act like an adult! Of course his son was 11 years and acting like an 11 year old.
Stupid mistakes in foreign policy costs lives. Need I mention Benghazi. Leaders are supposed to judge the probable future based on the past and the nature of the adversary. But if you don’t understand history and you are sure your adversary will act rationally you will get a nasty surprise. The scorpion will sting you, as his his nature.